Calculating…
Scenario summary
One line per scenario tab. Put a probability on each and the table weights its year-30 gap by it.
Buy and rent, probability-weighted
Each line is the weighted average across every scenario at each year. The table above holds the scenarios themselves; the note below the next chart gives the range they span.
The two assets, side by side
Weighted flat value against the weighted portfolio, with the mortgage underneath both. The loan is the one line that is the same in every scenario, so it is drawn once rather than averaged.
Running gross rental yield
The weighted average of each scenario’s yield. The note underneath gives the range across your scenarios and names any that leave the band — a sign that whichever growth rate is driving it is doing something the market has not sustained.
What Hong Kong housing actually did
Official Rating and Valuation Department series, quarterly back to 1979. Use it to check whether the growth rates you have typed into your scenarios have any precedent.
Price and rent, both rebased to 100
On a log scale, so the same vertical distance is the same percentage move wherever it falls. The gap between the two lines is the whole argument: when price runs ahead of rent, yields compress and buying gets harder to justify on cash flow alone.
Calendar-year price change
Year-end to year-end. The point of this one is the size of the bars, not their average.
Gross rental yield by class
Rent over price, before any of the owner’s costs — the same measure the yield chart on a scenario tab reports. Your class is drawn solid, the others faintly for comparison.
What a long hold actually returned
Annualised price growth over every window of this length that has completed. This is the number to compare your scenarios against.
Net position through time
What each scenario is worth if you liquidated at that point — the flat sold net of costs and the mortgage repaid, against the portfolio plus the rental deposit.
The two assets, side by side
The flat is worth several times the portfolio for most of the term. The shaded band is the part of it you actually own — everything above the mortgage line.
Running gross rental yield
Rent paid over the year against what the flat is worth, gross — before any of the owner’s costs. A sanity check on whether the rent and price assumptions stay plausible together for thirty years.
Where the money goes each year
Both columns are the same height by construction: every dollar the owner spends in a year is a dollar the renter either pays in rent or puts into the market.
HIBOR, and what it does to your rate
A quarter century of Hong Kong rates on the left, your modelled path on the right. Your rate traces whichever of the two legs sits lower. Toggle series on and off to keep it readable.
What has to be true for buying to win
Net position of buying minus renting at the horizon, across property growth and portfolio return. Everything else stays as entered. The ringed cell is your current assumption.
Risk, not just the central case
Property and equities are both volatile and correlated. This resamples both every month and keeps everything else as entered.
Year-by-year ledger
Every number behind the charts.